EH483 Week 16 Reading: Skeldon1990

Skeldon, R. Population Mobility in Developing Countries. John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

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pp.13–20: the spacial and temporal dimensions of migration:
[It is important to realise that with different boundaries and time frames defined, the amount of migration can be very different.]

Zelinsky's Model of Mobility Transition:

The Vital Transition	The Mobility Transition
PHASE A – The Premodern Traditional Society A moderately high to quite high fertility pattern that lends to fluctuate only slightly Mortality at nearly the same level as fertility on the average, but fluctuating much more from year to year. Little, if any, long-range natural increase or decrease.	PHASE I – The Premodern Traditional Society Little genuine residential migration and only such limited circulation as is sanctioned by customary practice in land utilization, social visits, commerce, warfare, or religious observations.
PHASE B – The Early Transitional Society Slight, but significant, rise in fertility, which then remains fairly constant at a high level Rapid decline in mortality A relatively rapid rate of natural increase, and thus a major growth in size of population.	PHASE II – The Early Transitional Society massive movement from countryside to cities, old and new Significant movement of rural folk to colonization frontiers, if land suitable for pioneering is available within country. Major outflow of emigrants to available and attractive foreign destinations. Under certain circumstances, a small, but significant, immigration of skilled workers, technicians, and professionals from more advanced parts of the world. Significant growth in various kinds of circulation.
PHASE C – The Late Transitional Society A major decline in fertility, initially rather slight and slow, later quite rapid, until another slowdown occurs as fertility approaches mortality level. A continuing, but slackening, decline in mortality. A significant, but decelerating, natural increase, at rates well below those observed during phase B.	PHASE III – The Late Transitional Society Slackening, but still major, movement from countryside to city. Lessening flow of migrants to colonization frontiers. Emigration on the decline or may have ceased altogether Further increase in circulation, with growth in structural complexity.
PHASE D – The Advanced Society The decline in fertility has terminated, and a socially controlled fertility oscillates rather unpredictably at low to moderate levels. Mortality is stabilized at levels near or slightly below fertility with little year-to-year variability. There is either a slight to moderate rate of natural increase or none at all.	PHASE IV – The Advanced Society Residential mobility has levelled off and oscillates at a high level. Movement from countryside to city continues but is further reduced in absolute and relative terms. Vigorous movement of migrants from city to city and within individual urban agglomerations. If a settlement frontier has persisted, it is now stagnant or actually retreating. Significant net immigration of unskilled and semiskilled workers from relatively underdeveloped lands. There may be a significant international migration or circulation of skilled and professional persons, but direction and volume of flow depend on specific conditions. Vigorous accelerating circulation, particularly the economic and pleasure-oriented, but other varieties as well.
PHASE E – A Future Superadvanced Society No plausible predictions of fertility behaviour are available, but it is likely that births will be more carefully controlled by individuals- and perhaps by new socio-political means. A stable mortality pattern slightly below present levels seems likely, unless organic diseases are controlled and lifespan is greatly extended.	PHASE V – A Future Superadvanced Society There may be a decline in level of residential migration and a deceleration in some froms of circulation as better communication and delivery systems are instituted. nearly all residential migration may be of interurban and intraurban variety. Some further immigration of relatively unskilled labor from less developed areas is possible. Further acceleration in some current forms of circulation and perhaps the inception of new forms. Strict political control of internal as well as international movements may be imposed.

The third column (which is empty now) belongs to Skeldon's own model.

Basically Skeldon is trying to say that premodern mobility of the peasants was there. He sets off to demystify that pre-industrialization peasants were 'immobile'. He argues that pilgrimage, wars, and things like that, all contributed greatly to mobility. Also, with London (although an extreme case) taking up about 10% of total English population and 68% of urban population in 1700, primate cities (such as Bangkok and Mexico City) are not limited to developing countries.

The basic idea of mobility transition is that before the transition, short-term rural-to-urban migration was the dominant factor. After that, we see the process of true 'urbanization'. (Yes, I am oversimplifying here. I am running out of steam, but this book is immensely interesting to me, so I will come back to write a full report on this before the class discussion next Tuesday.) I hope this idea of mobility transition helps.